Category: Blog

Live volatility monitor

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In April this year, Rstudio notified early users of shiny that Glimmer and Spark servers which host interactive-applications would be decommissioned. Basically, the company is moving forward to generate revenues from this great interactive application service. For us aspirants who use the service strictly as a hobby, that means, in a word: pay.

Basic subscription now costs around 40$ per month. Keeping your applications free of charge is possible BUT, as long as it is not used for more than 25 hours per month. So if your site generate some traffic, most users would simply not be able to access the app. Apart from that, you are subject to some built-in Rstudio’s logo which can’t be removed without having a paid subscription. That is a shame, but a company’s gotta eat right? I am using Rstudio’s services from their very beginning, and the company definitely deserve to eat! only I wish there would be another step between the monthly 0$ option which provides too slim capabilities, and the monthly 40$ option which is, in my admittedly biased opinion, too pricey for a ‘sometimes’ hobby.

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Multivariate volatility forecasting (1)

Blog, Finance and Trading, Risk, Statistics and EconometricsPosted on

Introduction

When hopping from univariate volatility forecasts to multivariate volatility forecast, we need to understand that now we have to forecast not only the univariate volatility element, which we already know how to do, but also the covariance elements, which we do not know how to do, yet. Say you have two series, then this covariance element is the off-diagonal of the 2 by 2 variance-covariance matrix. The precise term we should use is “variance-covariance matrix”, since the matrix consists of the variance elements on the diagonal and the covariance elements on the off-diagonal. But since it is very tiring to read\write “variance-covariance matrix”, it is commonly referred to as the covariance matrix, or sometimes less formally as var-covar matrix.

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How regression statistics mislead experts

Blog, Miscellaneous, Statistics and EconometricsPosted on

This post concerns a paper I came across checking the nominations for best paper published in International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) for 2012-2013. The paper bears the annoyingly irresistible title: “The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts”, and was written by Soyer Emre and Robin Hogarth (henceforth S&H). The paper resonates another paper published in “Psychological review” (1973), by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky: “On the psychology of prediction”. Despite the fact that S&H do not cite the 1973 paper, I find it highly related.

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PCA as regression (2)

Blog, Statistics and EconometricsPosted on

In a previous post on this subject, we related the loadings of the principal components (PC’s) from the singular value decomposition (SVD) to regression coefficients of the PC’s onto the X matrix. This is normal given the fact that the factors are supposed to condense the information in X, and what better way to do that than to minimize the sum of squares between a linear combination of X (the factors) to the X matrix itself. A reader was asking where does principal component regression (PCR) enter. Here we relate the PCR to the usual OLS.

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Adding text to R plot

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Diversity is a real strength. By now it is common knowledge. I often see institutions openly encourage multinational environment and multidisciplinary professionals, with specific “on-the-job” training to tailor for own needs. No one knows a lot about a lot, so bringing different together enhance independent thinking and knowledge available to the organization. Clarity of communication then becomes even more important, and making sure your figures are quickly understandable goes a long way.

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Out-of-sample data snooping

Blog, Risk, Statistics and EconometricsPosted on

In this day and age, paralleling and mining big data, I like to think about the new complications that follow this abundance. By way of analogy, Alzheimer’s dementia is an awful condition, but we are only familiar with it since medical advances allow for higher life expectancy. Better abilities allow for new predicaments. One of those new predicament is what I call out-of-sample data snooping.

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Energy idiosyncratic volatility

Blog, Finance and Trading, RiskPosted on

Recently, volatility has been on the up. Generally, we associate rising volatility with a bear regime, but we also know there is a percolating oil shock. Is the volatility we see in the stock market broad-based, or is it the effect brought about by sharp the drop in oil prices (so related to the energy sector)? I propose here a practical way to take a closer look at it.

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Fed Fund Rate futures curve and what they tell us

Blog, Finance and TradingPosted on

“The Fed is certainly moving forward with plans to normalize interest rates.” We keep on hearing that, we believed it in the past and we believe it now. We believe that the Fed believes and that, in fact, this means something.

Should we become more suspicious and less trusting given history? Let’s take a look.

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Linking backtesting with multiple testing

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The other day, Harvey Campbell from Duke University gave a talk where I work. The talk- bearing the exciting name “Backtesting” was based on a paper by the same name.

The authors tackle the important problem of data-snooping; we need to account for the fact that we conducted many trials until we found a strategy (or a variable) that ‘works’. Accessible explanations can be found here and here. In this day and age, the ‘story’ behind what you are doing is more important than ever, given the things you can do using your desktop/laptop.

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